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Shandong Luneng vs Tianjin Songjiang — Super League 2018

Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
7/17/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Jinan Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shandong Luneng58%
×Draw21%
Tianjin Songjiang21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shandong Luneng
2.06
Tianjin Songjiang
1.14

Shandong Luneng creates 81% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 30 away

creates per match

Shandong Luneng
2.23
Tianjin Songjiang
1.40

allows per match

Shandong Luneng
0.88
Tianjin Songjiang
1.90

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par
Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw
79%
Shandong Luneng or Tianjin Songjiang
79%
Draw or Tianjin Songjiang
42%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
35%
Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
87%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
61%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
34%
Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
68%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
32%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
74%
Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.88 · 120 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 2.23 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.06

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.40 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more
58%
level
21%
Tianjin Songjiang scores more
21%

Shandong Luneng at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shandong Luneng 2–1 Tianjin Songjiang

Shandong Luneng beat Tianjin Songjiang 2-1 in Super League on July 17, 2019.

The match was played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center in Jinan.