Tianjin Songjiang 3–0 Kitchee: Result & Stats

Tianjin Songjiang

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Kitchee

2/13/2018

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tianjin Songjiang57%

×Draw22%

Kitchee21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tianjin SongjiangExpected goals in this matchKitchee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.04

Tianjin Songjiang

1.88

Kitchee

1.04

Tianjin Songjiang creates 81% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

0.92

1.17

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Tianjin Songjiang

2.00

Kitchee

0.92

allows per match

Tianjin Songjiang

1.17

Kitchee

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Kitchee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Songjiang ↓

Kitchee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Tianjin Songjiang or draw

79%

Tianjin Songjiang or Kitchee

78%

Draw or Kitchee

43%

Winning margin

Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+

33%

Kitchee wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals

85%

Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals

56%

Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals

29%

Kitchee 1+ goals

65%

Kitchee 2+ goals

28%

Kitchee 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)

73%

Kitchee (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Songjiang at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Kitchee away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Songjiang attack 2.00 + Kitchee defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Kitchee attack 0.92 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tianjin Songjiang scores more

57%

level

22%

Kitchee scores more

21%

Tianjin Songjiang at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tianjin Songjiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff