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Kitchee vs Tianjin Songjiang — AFC Champions League 2018

Kitchee
Kitchee
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
4/4/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Mong Kok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kitchee42%
×Draw25%
Tianjin Songjiang34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kitchee
1.56
Tianjin Songjiang
1.38

Kitchee creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kitchee
0.91
Tianjin Songjiang
1.40

allows per match

Kitchee
1.36
Tianjin Songjiang
2.20

finishing

Kitchee+0.00on par
Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitchee ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kitchee or draw
66%
Kitchee or Tianjin Songjiang
75%
Draw or Tianjin Songjiang
58%

Winning margin

Kitchee wins by 2+
21%
Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kitchee 1+ goals
79%
Kitchee 2+ goals
46%
Kitchee 3+ goals
21%
Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
75%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
40%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kitchee (draw refunded)
55%
Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitchee at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitchee attack 0.91 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.40 + Kitchee defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kitchee scores more
42%
level
25%
Tianjin Songjiang scores more
34%

Kitchee at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kitchee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Kitchee 0–1 Tianjin Songjiang

Tianjin Songjiang beat Kitchee 1-0 in AFC Champions League on April 4, 2018.

The match was played at Mong Kok Stadium in Hong Kong.