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Tianjin Songjiang vs Kashima — AFC Champions League 2018

Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Kashima
Kashimaadvanced
9/18/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Quarter-finalsMacau Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tianjin Songjiang43%
×Draw24%
Kashima33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tianjin Songjiang
1.67
Kashima
1.42

Tianjin Songjiang creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Tianjin Songjiang
2.00
Kashima
1.67

allows per match

Tianjin Songjiang
1.17
Kashima
1.33

finishing

Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par
Kashima+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Songjiang ↓

Kashima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tianjin Songjiang or draw
67%
Tianjin Songjiang or Kashima
76%
Draw or Kashima
57%

Winning margin

Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
22%
Kashima wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
81%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
50%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
23%
Kashima 1+ goals
76%
Kashima 2+ goals
41%
Kashima 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
57%
Kashima (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Songjiang at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Kashima away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Songjiang attack 2.00 + Kashima defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Kashima attack 1.67 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tianjin Songjiang scores more
43%
level
24%
Kashima scores more
33%

Tianjin Songjiang at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tianjin Songjiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Tianjin Songjiang 0–3 Kashima

Kashima beat Tianjin Songjiang 3-0 in AFC Champions League on September 18, 2018.

The match was played at Macau Stadium in Taipa.