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Kashima vs Tianjin Songjiang — AFC Champions League 2018

Kashima
Kashimaadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
8/28/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Quarter-finalsKashima Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kashima55%
×Draw22%
Tianjin Songjiang23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kashima
1.89
Tianjin Songjiang
1.13

Kashima creates 67% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kashima
1.57
Tianjin Songjiang
1.40

allows per match

Kashima
0.86
Tianjin Songjiang
2.20

finishing

Kashima+0.00on par
Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kashima ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kashima or draw
77%
Kashima or Tianjin Songjiang
78%
Draw or Tianjin Songjiang
45%

Winning margin

Kashima wins by 2+
32%
Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kashima 1+ goals
85%
Kashima 2+ goals
56%
Kashima 3+ goals
29%
Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
68%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
31%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kashima (draw refunded)
71%
Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kashima at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kashima attack 1.57 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.89

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.40 + Kashima defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kashima scores more
55%
level
22%
Tianjin Songjiang scores more
23%

Kashima at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kashima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kashima vs Tianjin Songjiang

Kashima beat Tianjin Songjiang 2-0 in AFC Champions League on August 28, 2018.

The match was played at Kashima Soccer Stadium in Kashima.