Tianjin Songjiang 0–0 Hebei Zhongji: Result & Stats

Tianjin Songjiang

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hebei Zhongji

4/6/2019

Super League · Round 4Tianjin Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tianjin Songjiang52%

×Draw23%

Hebei Zhongji25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tianjin SongjiangExpected goals in this matchHebei Zhongji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.19

Tianjin Songjiang

1.83

Hebei Zhongji

1.19

Tianjin Songjiang creates 54% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 67 away

1.32

creates per match

0.94

1.45

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Tianjin Songjiang

1.32

Hebei Zhongji

0.94

allows per match

Tianjin Songjiang

1.45

Hebei Zhongji

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Songjiang ↓

Hebei Zhongji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Tianjin Songjiang or draw

75%

Tianjin Songjiang or Hebei Zhongji

77%

Draw or Hebei Zhongji

48%

Winning margin

Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+

29%

Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals

84%

Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals

54%

Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals

28%

Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals

70%

Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals

33%

Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)

68%

Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Songjiang at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Hebei Zhongji away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.32 + Hebei Zhongji defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.83

Hebei Zhongji attack 0.94 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tianjin Songjiang scores more

52%

level

23%

Hebei Zhongji scores more

25%

Tianjin Songjiang at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tianjin Songjiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff