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Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Songjiang — Super League 2018

Hebei Zhongji
Hebei Zhongji
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
7/21/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Langfang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hebei Zhongji36%
×Draw23%
Tianjin Songjiang40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebei Zhongji
1.55
Tianjin Songjiang
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 30 away

creates per match

Hebei Zhongji
1.21
Tianjin Songjiang
1.40

allows per match

Hebei Zhongji
1.90
Tianjin Songjiang
1.90

finishing

Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par
Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebei Zhongji ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hebei Zhongji or draw
60%
Hebei Zhongji or Tianjin Songjiang
77%
Draw or Tianjin Songjiang
64%

Winning margin

Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+
17%
Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals
79%
Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals
46%
Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals
20%
Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
81%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
49%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)
47%
Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebei Zhongji at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.90 · 68 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebei Zhongji attack 1.21 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.55

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.40 + Hebei Zhongji defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hebei Zhongji scores more
36%
level
23%
Tianjin Songjiang scores more
40%

Tianjin Songjiang at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tianjin Songjiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Songjiang

Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Songjiang drew 2-2 in Super League on July 21, 2019.

The match was played at Langfang Stadium in Langfang.