Tianjin Songjiang 1–0 Guizhou Zhicheng

Tianjin Songjiang

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guizhou Zhicheng

8/24/2018

Super League · Round 20Haihe Education Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tianjin Songjiang55%

×Draw22%

Guizhou Zhicheng23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tianjin SongjiangExpected goals in this matchGuizhou Zhicheng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.23

Tianjin Songjiang

2.02

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.23

Tianjin Songjiang creates 64% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 15 away

1.32

creates per match

1.00

1.45

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Tianjin Songjiang

1.32

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.00

allows per match

Tianjin Songjiang

1.45

Guizhou Zhicheng

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Songjiang ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Tianjin Songjiang or draw

77%

Tianjin Songjiang or Guizhou Zhicheng

78%

Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng

45%

Winning margin

Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+

33%

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals

87%

Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals

60%

Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals

33%

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

71%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

35%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)

71%

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Songjiang at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.32 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.02

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.00 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tianjin Songjiang scores more

55%

level

22%

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

23%

Tianjin Songjiang at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tianjin Songjiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff