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Guizhou Zhicheng vs Tianjin Songjiang — Super League 2018

Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
4/8/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng39%
×Draw24%
Tianjin Songjiang37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.58
Tianjin Songjiang
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.27
Tianjin Songjiang
1.40

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng
1.67
Tianjin Songjiang
1.90

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par
Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw
63%
Guizhou Zhicheng or Tianjin Songjiang
76%
Draw or Tianjin Songjiang
61%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
19%
Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
79%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
47%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
21%
Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
78%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
45%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
51%
Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.27 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.58

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.40 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
39%
level
24%
Tianjin Songjiang scores more
37%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Guizhou Zhicheng 0–1 Tianjin Songjiang

Tianjin Songjiang beat Guizhou Zhicheng 1-0 in Super League on April 8, 2018.

The match was played at Guiyang Olympic Sports Center in Guiyang.