Tianjin Songjiang 2–0 Changchun Yatai

Tianjin Songjiang

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Changchun Yatai

7/29/2018

Super League · Round 14Haihe Education Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tianjin Songjiang43%

×Draw24%

Changchun Yatai33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tianjin SongjiangExpected goals in this matchChangchun Yatai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.38

Tianjin Songjiang

1.61

Changchun Yatai

1.38

Tianjin Songjiang creates 17% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 88 away

1.32

creates per match

1.30

1.45

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Tianjin Songjiang

1.32

Changchun Yatai

1.30

allows per match

Tianjin Songjiang

1.45

Changchun Yatai

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Changchun Yatai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Songjiang ↓

Changchun Yatai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Tianjin Songjiang or draw

67%

Tianjin Songjiang or Changchun Yatai

76%

Draw or Changchun Yatai

57%

Winning margin

Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+

22%

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals

80%

Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals

48%

Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals

22%

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals

75%

Changchun Yatai 2+ goals

40%

Changchun Yatai 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)

57%

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Songjiang at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Changchun Yatai away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.32 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.61

Changchun Yatai attack 1.30 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tianjin Songjiang scores more

43%

level

24%

Changchun Yatai scores more

33%

Tianjin Songjiang at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tianjin Songjiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff