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Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Songjiang — Super League 2018

Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
11/7/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29Changchun Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Changchun Yatai45%
×Draw24%
Tianjin Songjiang31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Changchun Yatai
1.67
Tianjin Songjiang
1.36

Changchun Yatai creates 23% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 30 away

creates per match

Changchun Yatai
1.44
Tianjin Songjiang
1.40

allows per match

Changchun Yatai
1.33
Tianjin Songjiang
1.90

finishing

Changchun Yatai+0.00on par
Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changchun Yatai ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Changchun Yatai or draw
69%
Changchun Yatai or Tianjin Songjiang
76%
Draw or Tianjin Songjiang
55%

Winning margin

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
23%
Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
81%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
50%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
23%
Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
74%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
39%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
59%
Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changchun Yatai at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 88 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changchun Yatai attack 1.44 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.40 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Changchun Yatai scores more
45%
level
24%
Tianjin Songjiang scores more
31%

Changchun Yatai at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Changchun Yatai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Changchun Yatai vs Tianjin Songjiang

Changchun Yatai and Tianjin Songjiang drew 2-2 in Super League on November 7, 2018.

The match was played at Changchun Sports Center in Changchun.