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Tianjin Songjiang vs Beijing Renhe — Super League 2018

Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Beijing Renhe
Beijing Renhe
3/10/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Haihe Education Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Tianjin Songjiang49%
×Draw24%
Beijing Renhe26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tianjin Songjiang
1.65
Beijing Renhe
1.13

Tianjin Songjiang creates 46% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 30 away

creates per match

Tianjin Songjiang
1.32
Beijing Renhe
0.80

allows per match

Tianjin Songjiang
1.45
Beijing Renhe
1.97

finishing

Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par
Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Songjiang ↓

Beijing Renhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tianjin Songjiang or draw
74%
Tianjin Songjiang or Beijing Renhe
76%
Draw or Beijing Renhe
51%

Winning margin

Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
26%
Beijing Renhe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
81%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
49%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
23%
Beijing Renhe 1+ goals
68%
Beijing Renhe 2+ goals
31%
Beijing Renhe 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
65%
Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Songjiang at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.32 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.65

Beijing Renhe attack 0.80 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tianjin Songjiang scores more
49%
level
24%
Beijing Renhe scores more
26%

Tianjin Songjiang at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tianjin Songjiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tianjin Songjiang vs Beijing Renhe

Beijing Renhe beat Tianjin Songjiang 2-1 in Super League on March 10, 2018.

The match was played at Haihe Education Park Stadium in Tianjin.