Beijing Renhe 3–3 Tianjin Songjiang: Result & Stats

Beijing Renhe

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Tianjin Songjiang

8/12/2018

Super League · Round 17Fengtai Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beijing Renhe37%

×Draw24%

Tianjin Songjiang39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing RenheExpected goals in this matchTianjin Songjiang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.56

Beijing Renhe

1.53

Tianjin Songjiang

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.17

creates per match

1.40

1.73

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Beijing Renhe

1.17

Tianjin Songjiang

1.40

allows per match

Beijing Renhe

1.73

Tianjin Songjiang

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw

61%

Beijing Renhe or Tianjin Songjiang

76%

Draw or Tianjin Songjiang

63%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+

18%

Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals

78%

Beijing Renhe 2+ goals

45%

Beijing Renhe 3+ goals

20%

Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals

79%

Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals

46%

Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)

49%

Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.17 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.53

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.40 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more

37%

level

24%

Tianjin Songjiang scores more

39%

Tianjin Songjiang at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tianjin Songjiang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff