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Tianjin Songjiang vs Beijing Guoan — Super League 2018

Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
11/2/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28Haihe Education Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Tianjin Songjiang34%
×Draw25%
Beijing Guoan41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tianjin Songjiang
1.37
Beijing Guoan
1.52

Beijing Guoan creates 11% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 121 away

creates per match

Tianjin Songjiang
1.32
Beijing Guoan
1.59

allows per match

Tianjin Songjiang
1.45
Beijing Guoan
1.42

finishing

Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par
Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tianjin Songjiang ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tianjin Songjiang or draw
59%
Tianjin Songjiang or Beijing Guoan
75%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
66%

Winning margin

Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
15%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
75%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
40%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
16%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
78%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
45%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
46%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tianjin Songjiang at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.42 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.32 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.37

Beijing Guoan attack 1.59 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tianjin Songjiang scores more
34%
level
25%
Beijing Guoan scores more
41%

Beijing Guoan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tianjin Songjiang vs Beijing Guoan

Tianjin Songjiang and Beijing Guoan drew 0-0 in Super League on November 2, 2018.

The match was played at Haihe Education Park Stadium in Tianjin.