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Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Songjiang — Super League 2018

Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Tianjin Songjiang
Tianjin Songjiang
7/22/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Beijing Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beijing Guoan56%
×Draw21%
Tianjin Songjiang23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Guoan
2.08
Tianjin Songjiang
1.28

Beijing Guoan creates 63% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 30 away

creates per match

Beijing Guoan
2.25
Tianjin Songjiang
1.40

allows per match

Beijing Guoan
1.16
Tianjin Songjiang
1.90

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par
Tianjin Songjiang+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Tianjin Songjiang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw
77%
Beijing Guoan or Tianjin Songjiang
79%
Draw or Tianjin Songjiang
44%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
33%
Tianjin Songjiang wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
87%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
61%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
34%
Tianjin Songjiang 1+ goals
72%
Tianjin Songjiang 2+ goals
37%
Tianjin Songjiang 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
71%
Tianjin Songjiang (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.16 · 122 matches

Tianjin Songjiang away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.25 + Tianjin Songjiang defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.08

Tianjin Songjiang attack 1.40 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more
56%
level
21%
Tianjin Songjiang scores more
23%

Beijing Guoan at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin Songjiang

Beijing Guoan beat Tianjin Songjiang 3-2 in Super League on July 22, 2018.

The match was played at Beijing Workers' Stadium in Beijing.