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Thy ThistedQ W vs Odense Q W — Kvindeliga 2019

Thy ThistedQ W
Thy ThistedQ W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Odense Q W
Odense Q W
8/17/2019KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 4Sparekassen Thy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Thy ThistedQ W44%
×Draw23%
Odense Q W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thy ThistedQ W
1.74
Odense Q W
1.46

Thy ThistedQ W creates 19% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 32 away

creates per match

Thy ThistedQ W
1.26
Odense Q W
1.19

allows per match

Thy ThistedQ W
1.74
Odense Q W
2.22

finishing

Thy ThistedQ W+0.00on par
Odense Q W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thy ThistedQ W ↓

Odense Q W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Thy ThistedQ W or draw
68%
Thy ThistedQ W or Odense Q W
77%
Draw or Odense Q W
56%

Winning margin

Thy ThistedQ W wins by 2+
23%
Odense Q W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Thy ThistedQ W 1+ goals
82%
Thy ThistedQ W 2+ goals
52%
Thy ThistedQ W 3+ goals
25%
Odense Q W 1+ goals
77%
Odense Q W 2+ goals
43%
Odense Q W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Thy ThistedQ W (draw refunded)
58%
Odense Q W (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thy ThistedQ W at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.74 · 57 matches

Odense Q W away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thy ThistedQ W attack 1.26 + Odense Q W defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.74

Odense Q W attack 1.19 + Thy ThistedQ W defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Thy ThistedQ W scores more
44%
level
23%
Odense Q W scores more
32%

Thy ThistedQ W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Thy ThistedQ W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thy ThistedQ W vs Odense Q W

Thy ThistedQ W beat Odense Q W 5-0 in Kvindeliga on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Sparekassen Thy Arena in Thisted.