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Odense Q W vs Thy ThistedQ W — Kvindeliga 2019

Odense Q W
Odense Q W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Thy ThistedQ W
Thy ThistedQ W
5/9/2026KvindeligaKvindeliga · Relegation - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odense Q W41%
×Draw22%
Thy ThistedQ W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odense Q W
1.81
Thy ThistedQ W
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 58 away

creates per match

Odense Q W
1.32
Thy ThistedQ W
1.33

allows per match

Odense Q W
2.03
Thy ThistedQ W
2.31

finishing

Odense Q W+0.00on par
Thy ThistedQ W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odense Q W ↓

Thy ThistedQ W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Odense Q W or draw
64%
Odense Q W or Thy ThistedQ W
78%
Draw or Thy ThistedQ W
59%

Winning margin

Odense Q W wins by 2+
22%
Thy ThistedQ W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Odense Q W 1+ goals
84%
Odense Q W 2+ goals
54%
Odense Q W 3+ goals
27%
Thy ThistedQ W 1+ goals
81%
Thy ThistedQ W 2+ goals
50%
Thy ThistedQ W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Odense Q W (draw refunded)
53%
Thy ThistedQ W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odense Q W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

Thy ThistedQ W away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.31 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odense Q W attack 1.32 + Thy ThistedQ W defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.81

Thy ThistedQ W attack 1.33 + Odense Q W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Odense Q W scores more
41%
level
22%
Thy ThistedQ W scores more
36%

Odense Q W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Odense Q W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Odense Q W vs Thy ThistedQ W

Odense Q W and Thy ThistedQ W drew 1-1 in Kvindeliga on May 9, 2026.