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Thy ThistedQ W vs Fortuna Hjørring W — Kvindeliga 2019

Thy ThistedQ W
Thy ThistedQ W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fortuna Hjørring W
Fortuna Hjørring W
11/11/2023KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 10Sparekassen Thy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Thy ThistedQ W24%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Hjørring W53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thy ThistedQ W
1.14
Fortuna Hjørring W
1.83

Fortuna Hjørring W creates 61% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 80 away

creates per match

Thy ThistedQ W
1.26
Fortuna Hjørring W
1.93

allows per match

Thy ThistedQ W
1.74
Fortuna Hjørring W
1.02

finishing

Thy ThistedQ W+0.00on par
Fortuna Hjørring W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thy ThistedQ W ↓

Fortuna Hjørring W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Thy ThistedQ W or draw
47%
Thy ThistedQ W or Fortuna Hjørring W
77%
Draw or Fortuna Hjørring W
76%

Winning margin

Thy ThistedQ W wins by 2+
9%
Fortuna Hjørring W wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Thy ThistedQ W 1+ goals
68%
Thy ThistedQ W 2+ goals
32%
Thy ThistedQ W 3+ goals
11%
Fortuna Hjørring W 1+ goals
84%
Fortuna Hjørring W 2+ goals
54%
Fortuna Hjørring W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Thy ThistedQ W (draw refunded)
31%
Fortuna Hjørring W (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thy ThistedQ W at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.74 · 57 matches

Fortuna Hjørring W away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thy ThistedQ W attack 1.26 + Fortuna Hjørring W defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Fortuna Hjørring W attack 1.93 + Thy ThistedQ W defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Thy ThistedQ W scores more
24%
level
23%
Fortuna Hjørring W scores more
53%

Fortuna Hjørring W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fortuna Hjørring W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kvindeliga: Thy ThistedQ W 0–1 Fortuna Hjørring W

Fortuna Hjørring W beat Thy ThistedQ W 1-0 in Kvindeliga on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Sparekassen Thy Arena in Thisted.