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Fortuna Hjørring W vs Thy ThistedQ W — Kvindeliga 2019

Fortuna Hjørring W
Fortuna Hjørring W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Thy ThistedQ W
Thy ThistedQ W
4/1/2023KvindeligaKvindeliga · Championship Round - 1Nord Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Fortuna Hjørring W59%
×Draw21%
Thy ThistedQ W20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Hjørring W
2.08
Thy ThistedQ W
1.14

Fortuna Hjørring W creates 82% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 58 away

creates per match

Fortuna Hjørring W
1.85
Thy ThistedQ W
1.33

allows per match

Fortuna Hjørring W
0.95
Thy ThistedQ W
2.31

finishing

Fortuna Hjørring W+0.00on par
Thy ThistedQ W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Hjørring W ↓

Thy ThistedQ W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Fortuna Hjørring W or draw
80%
Fortuna Hjørring W or Thy ThistedQ W
79%
Draw or Thy ThistedQ W
41%

Winning margin

Fortuna Hjørring W wins by 2+
36%
Thy ThistedQ W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fortuna Hjørring W 1+ goals
87%
Fortuna Hjørring W 2+ goals
61%
Fortuna Hjørring W 3+ goals
34%
Thy ThistedQ W 1+ goals
68%
Thy ThistedQ W 2+ goals
32%
Thy ThistedQ W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Hjørring W (draw refunded)
74%
Thy ThistedQ W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Hjørring W at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

Thy ThistedQ W away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.31 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Hjørring W attack 1.85 + Thy ThistedQ W defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.08

Thy ThistedQ W attack 1.33 + Fortuna Hjørring W defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Fortuna Hjørring W scores more
59%
level
21%
Thy ThistedQ W scores more
20%

Fortuna Hjørring W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Fortuna Hjørring W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kvindeliga: Fortuna Hjørring W 1–0 Thy ThistedQ W

Fortuna Hjørring W beat Thy ThistedQ W 1-0 in Kvindeliga on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Nord Energi Arena in Hjørring.