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Thunder Bay Chill vs Manitoba — USL League Two 2018

Thunder Bay Chill
Thunder Bay Chill
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Manitoba
Manitoba
7/16/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 75Chapples Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Thunder Bay Chill44%
×Draw23%
Manitoba33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thunder Bay Chill
1.77
Manitoba
1.52

Thunder Bay Chill creates 16% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 12 away

creates per match

Thunder Bay Chill
1.87
Manitoba
1.75

allows per match

Thunder Bay Chill
1.30
Manitoba
1.67

finishing

Thunder Bay Chill+0.00on par
Manitoba+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thunder Bay Chill ↓

Manitoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Thunder Bay Chill or draw
67%
Thunder Bay Chill or Manitoba
77%
Draw or Manitoba
56%

Winning margin

Thunder Bay Chill wins by 2+
23%
Manitoba wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Thunder Bay Chill 1+ goals
83%
Thunder Bay Chill 2+ goals
53%
Thunder Bay Chill 3+ goals
26%
Manitoba 1+ goals
78%
Manitoba 2+ goals
45%
Manitoba 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Thunder Bay Chill (draw refunded)
57%
Manitoba (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thunder Bay Chill at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Manitoba away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thunder Bay Chill attack 1.87 + Manitoba defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Manitoba attack 1.75 + Thunder Bay Chill defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Thunder Bay Chill scores more
44%
level
23%
Manitoba scores more
33%

Thunder Bay Chill at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Thunder Bay Chill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Thunder Bay Chill 2–1 Manitoba

Thunder Bay Chill beat Manitoba 2-1 in USL League Two on July 16, 2022.

The match was played at Chapples Park Stadium in Thunder Bay, Ontario.