Manitoba 1–1 Thunder Bay Chill: Result & Stats

Manitoba

FT

1 – 1

Thunder Bay Chill

5/28/2023

USL League Two · Central Conference - 4Ralph Cantafio Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Manitoba34%

×Draw24%

Thunder Bay Chill42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ManitobaExpected goals in this matchThunder Bay Chill

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.63

Manitoba

1.46

Thunder Bay Chill

1.63

Thunder Bay Chill creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 21 away

1.73

creates per match

1.71

1.55

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Manitoba

1.73

Thunder Bay Chill

1.71

allows per match

Manitoba

1.55

Thunder Bay Chill

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manitoba+0.00on par

Thunder Bay Chill+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manitoba ↓

Thunder Bay Chill →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Manitoba or draw

58%

Manitoba or Thunder Bay Chill

76%

Draw or Thunder Bay Chill

66%

Winning margin

Manitoba wins by 2+

16%

Thunder Bay Chill wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Manitoba 1+ goals

77%

Manitoba 2+ goals

43%

Manitoba 3+ goals

18%

Thunder Bay Chill 1+ goals

80%

Thunder Bay Chill 2+ goals

48%

Thunder Bay Chill 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Manitoba (draw refunded)

45%

Thunder Bay Chill (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manitoba at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Thunder Bay Chill away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manitoba attack 1.73 + Thunder Bay Chill defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.46

Thunder Bay Chill attack 1.71 + Manitoba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Manitoba scores more

34%

level

24%

Thunder Bay Chill scores more

42%

Thunder Bay Chill at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Thunder Bay Chill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff