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Thunder Bay Chill vs Des Moines Menace — USL League Two 2018

Thunder Bay Chill
Thunder Bay Chill
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Des Moines Menace
Des Moines Menace
6/3/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 22Chapples Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Thunder Bay Chill30%
×Draw23%
Des Moines Menace47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thunder Bay Chill
1.40
Des Moines Menace
1.79

Des Moines Menace creates 28% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 41 away

creates per match

Thunder Bay Chill
1.87
Des Moines Menace
2.27

allows per match

Thunder Bay Chill
1.30
Des Moines Menace
0.93

finishing

Thunder Bay Chill+0.00on par
Des Moines Menace+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thunder Bay Chill ↓

Des Moines Menace →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Thunder Bay Chill or draw
53%
Thunder Bay Chill or Des Moines Menace
77%
Draw or Des Moines Menace
70%

Winning margin

Thunder Bay Chill wins by 2+
13%
Des Moines Menace wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Thunder Bay Chill 1+ goals
75%
Thunder Bay Chill 2+ goals
41%
Thunder Bay Chill 3+ goals
17%
Des Moines Menace 1+ goals
83%
Des Moines Menace 2+ goals
53%
Des Moines Menace 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Thunder Bay Chill (draw refunded)
39%
Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thunder Bay Chill at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Des Moines Menace away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thunder Bay Chill attack 1.87 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.40

Des Moines Menace attack 2.27 + Thunder Bay Chill defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Thunder Bay Chill scores more
30%
level
23%
Des Moines Menace scores more
47%

Des Moines Menace at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Des Moines Menace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thunder Bay Chill 0 – 3 Des Moines Menace

Des Moines Menace beat Thunder Bay Chill 3-0 in USL League Two on June 3, 2022.

The match was played at Chapples Park Stadium in Thunder Bay, Ontario.