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Des Moines Menace vs Thunder Bay Chill — USL League Two 2018

Des Moines Menace
Des Moines Menace
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Thunder Bay Chill
Thunder Bay Chill
7/14/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Des Moines Menace57%
×Draw20%
Thunder Bay Chill22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Des Moines Menace
2.21
Thunder Bay Chill
1.32

Des Moines Menace creates 67% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 21 away

creates per match

Des Moines Menace
3.22
Thunder Bay Chill
1.71

allows per match

Des Moines Menace
0.94
Thunder Bay Chill
1.19

finishing

Des Moines Menace+0.00on par
Thunder Bay Chill+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Des Moines Menace ↓

Thunder Bay Chill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Des Moines Menace or draw
78%
Des Moines Menace or Thunder Bay Chill
80%
Draw or Thunder Bay Chill
43%

Winning margin

Des Moines Menace wins by 2+
35%
Thunder Bay Chill wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Des Moines Menace 1+ goals
89%
Des Moines Menace 2+ goals
65%
Des Moines Menace 3+ goals
38%
Thunder Bay Chill 1+ goals
73%
Thunder Bay Chill 2+ goals
38%
Thunder Bay Chill 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)
72%
Thunder Bay Chill (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Des Moines Menace at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.94 · 50 matches

Thunder Bay Chill away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Des Moines Menace attack 3.22 + Thunder Bay Chill defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 2.21

Thunder Bay Chill attack 1.71 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Des Moines Menace scores more
57%
level
20%
Thunder Bay Chill scores more
22%

Des Moines Menace at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Des Moines Menace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Des Moines Menace vs Thunder Bay Chill

Des Moines Menace beat Thunder Bay Chill 2-0 in USL League Two on July 14, 2019.