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Thun W vs Rapperswil Jona W — AXA Women’s Super League 2020

Thun W
Thun W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rapperswil Jona W
Rapperswil Jona W
4/4/2026AXA Women’s Super LeagueAXA Women’s Super League · Round 18Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Thun W43%
×Draw22%
Rapperswil Jona W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thun W
1.92
Rapperswil Jona W
1.71

Thun W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 41 away

creates per match

Thun W
1.00
Rapperswil Jona W
0.80

allows per match

Thun W
2.61
Rapperswil Jona W
2.83

finishing

Thun W+0.00on par
Rapperswil Jona W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thun W ↓

Rapperswil Jona W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Thun W or draw
65%
Thun W or Rapperswil Jona W
78%
Draw or Rapperswil Jona W
57%

Winning margin

Thun W wins by 2+
24%
Rapperswil Jona W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Thun W 1+ goals
85%
Thun W 2+ goals
57%
Thun W 3+ goals
30%
Rapperswil Jona W 1+ goals
82%
Rapperswil Jona W 2+ goals
51%
Rapperswil Jona W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Thun W (draw refunded)
55%
Rapperswil Jona W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thun W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.61 · 33 matches

Rapperswil Jona W away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.83 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thun W attack 1.00 + Rapperswil Jona W defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Rapperswil Jona W attack 0.80 + Thun W defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Thun W scores more
43%
level
22%
Rapperswil Jona W scores more
35%

Thun W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Thun W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thun W vs Rapperswil Jona W

Thun W and Rapperswil Jona W drew 2-2 in AXA Women’s Super League on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Municipal.