Rapperswil Jona W 2–2 Thun W: Result & Stats

Rapperswil Jona W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Thun W

10/12/2024

AXA Women’s Super League · Round 8Sportstadion Grünfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Rapperswil Jona W40%

×Draw21%

Thun W39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rapperswil Jona WExpected goals in this matchThun W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.95

Rapperswil Jona W

1.96

Thun W

1.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 33 away

1.07

creates per match

1.48

2.41

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Rapperswil Jona W

1.07

Thun W

1.48

allows per match

Rapperswil Jona W

2.41

Thun W

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapperswil Jona W+0.00on par

Thun W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapperswil Jona W ↓

Thun W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Rapperswil Jona W or draw

61%

Rapperswil Jona W or Thun W

79%

Draw or Thun W

60%

Winning margin

Rapperswil Jona W wins by 2+

21%

Thun W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Rapperswil Jona W 1+ goals

86%

Rapperswil Jona W 2+ goals

58%

Rapperswil Jona W 3+ goals

31%

Thun W 1+ goals

86%

Thun W 2+ goals

58%

Thun W 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Rapperswil Jona W (draw refunded)

50%

Thun W (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rapperswil Jona W at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.41 · 41 matches

Thun W away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rapperswil Jona W attack 1.07 + Thun W defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 1.96

Thun W attack 1.48 + Rapperswil Jona W defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rapperswil Jona W scores more

40%

level

21%

Thun W scores more

39%

Rapperswil Jona W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rapperswil Jona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff