Thun II 0–0 Neuchâtel Xamax II: Result & Stats

Thun II

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Neuchâtel Xamax II

8/20/2022

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Thun II38%

×Draw23%

Neuchâtel Xamax II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thun IIExpected goals in this matchNeuchâtel Xamax II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.73

Thun II

1.70

Neuchâtel Xamax II

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.80

creates per match

1.73

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Thun II

1.80

Neuchâtel Xamax II

1.73

allows per match

Thun II

1.73

Neuchâtel Xamax II

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thun II+0.00on par

Neuchâtel Xamax II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thun II ↓

Neuchâtel Xamax II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Thun II or draw

61%

Thun II or Neuchâtel Xamax II

77%

Draw or Neuchâtel Xamax II

62%

Winning margin

Thun II wins by 2+

19%

Neuchâtel Xamax II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Thun II 1+ goals

82%

Thun II 2+ goals

51%

Thun II 3+ goals

24%

Neuchâtel Xamax II 1+ goals

82%

Neuchâtel Xamax II 2+ goals

52%

Neuchâtel Xamax II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Thun II (draw refunded)

49%

Neuchâtel Xamax II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thun II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

Neuchâtel Xamax II away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thun II attack 1.80 + Neuchâtel Xamax II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.70

Neuchâtel Xamax II attack 1.73 + Thun II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Thun II scores more

38%

level

23%

Neuchâtel Xamax II scores more

39%

Neuchâtel Xamax II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Neuchâtel Xamax II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff