Neuchâtel Xamax II 3–2 Thun II: Result & Stats

Neuchâtel Xamax II

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Thun II

3/4/2023

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 18Stade de la Maladière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Neuchâtel Xamax II54%

×Draw20%

Thun II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Neuchâtel Xamax IIExpected goals in this matchThun II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.53

Neuchâtel Xamax II

2.25

Thun II

1.53

Neuchâtel Xamax II creates 47% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

2.47

creates per match

1.33

1.73

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Neuchâtel Xamax II

2.47

Thun II

1.33

allows per match

Neuchâtel Xamax II

1.73

Thun II

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Neuchâtel Xamax II+0.00on par

Thun II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Neuchâtel Xamax II ↓

Thun II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Neuchâtel Xamax II or draw

74%

Neuchâtel Xamax II or Thun II

80%

Draw or Thun II

46%

Winning margin

Neuchâtel Xamax II wins by 2+

33%

Thun II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Neuchâtel Xamax II 1+ goals

89%

Neuchâtel Xamax II 2+ goals

65%

Neuchâtel Xamax II 3+ goals

39%

Thun II 1+ goals

78%

Thun II 2+ goals

45%

Thun II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Neuchâtel Xamax II (draw refunded)

67%

Thun II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Neuchâtel Xamax II at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Thun II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Neuchâtel Xamax II attack 2.47 + Thun II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.25

Thun II attack 1.33 + Neuchâtel Xamax II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Neuchâtel Xamax II scores more

54%

level

20%

Thun II scores more

26%

Neuchâtel Xamax II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Neuchâtel Xamax II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff