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Thun II vs Muri — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Thun II
Thun II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Muri
Muri
3/28/20241. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Thun II59%
×Draw18%
Muri23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thun II
2.64
Muri
1.61

Thun II creates 64% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Thun II
1.80
Muri
1.50

allows per match

Thun II
1.73
Muri
3.47

finishing

Thun II+0.00on par
Muri+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thun II ↓

Muri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Thun II or draw
77%
Thun II or Muri
82%
Draw or Muri
41%

Winning margin

Thun II wins by 2+
39%
Muri wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Thun II 1+ goals
93%
Thun II 2+ goals
74%
Thun II 3+ goals
48%
Muri 1+ goals
80%
Muri 2+ goals
48%
Muri 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Thun II (draw refunded)
72%
Muri (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thun II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

Muri away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thun II attack 1.80 + Muri defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.64

Muri attack 1.50 + Thun II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Thun II scores more
59%
level
18%
Muri scores more
23%

Thun II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Thun II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thun II 2 – 1 Muri

Thun II beat Muri 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stockhorn Arena in Thun.