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Muri vs Thun II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Muri
Muri
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Thun II
Thun II
4/29/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Stadion Brühl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Muri29%
×Draw21%
Thun II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Muri
1.62
Thun II
2.18

Thun II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Muri
1.20
Thun II
1.33

allows per match

Muri
3.03
Thun II
2.04

finishing

Muri+0.00on par
Thun II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Muri ↓

Thun II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Muri or draw
50%
Muri or Thun II
79%
Draw or Thun II
71%

Winning margin

Muri wins by 2+
14%
Thun II wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Muri 1+ goals
80%
Muri 2+ goals
48%
Muri 3+ goals
22%
Thun II 1+ goals
89%
Thun II 2+ goals
64%
Thun II 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Muri (draw refunded)
36%
Thun II (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Muri at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.03 · 30 matches

Thun II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Muri attack 1.20 + Thun II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.62

Thun II attack 1.33 + Muri defence 3.03 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Muri scores more
29%
level
21%
Thun II scores more
50%

Thun II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Thun II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Muri vs Thun II

Thun II beat Muri 5-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Brühl in Muri.