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Thun II vs Grasshopper II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Thun II
Thun II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Grasshopper II
Grasshopper II
3/22/20251. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Thun II33%
×Draw21%
Grasshopper II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thun II
1.68
Grasshopper II
2.02

Grasshopper II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 55 away

creates per match

Thun II
1.80
Grasshopper II
2.31

allows per match

Thun II
1.73
Grasshopper II
1.56

finishing

Thun II+0.00on par
Grasshopper II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thun II ↓

Grasshopper II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Thun II or draw
54%
Thun II or Grasshopper II
79%
Draw or Grasshopper II
67%

Winning margin

Thun II wins by 2+
16%
Grasshopper II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Thun II 1+ goals
81%
Thun II 2+ goals
50%
Thun II 3+ goals
24%
Grasshopper II 1+ goals
87%
Grasshopper II 2+ goals
60%
Grasshopper II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Thun II (draw refunded)
42%
Grasshopper II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thun II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

Grasshopper II away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thun II attack 1.80 + Grasshopper II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Grasshopper II attack 2.31 + Thun II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Thun II scores more
33%
level
21%
Grasshopper II scores more
46%

Grasshopper II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Grasshopper II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thun II vs Grasshopper II

Thun II and Grasshopper II drew 2-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stockhorn Arena in Thun.