Grasshopper II 1–0 Thun II: Result & Stats

Grasshopper II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Thun II

9/7/2024

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6GC/Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Grasshopper II60%

×Draw20%

Thun II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Grasshopper IIExpected goals in this matchThun II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.25

Grasshopper II

2.27

Thun II

1.25

Grasshopper II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 45 away

2.49

creates per match

1.33

1.16

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Grasshopper II

2.49

Thun II

1.33

allows per match

Grasshopper II

1.16

Thun II

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grasshopper II+0.00on par

Thun II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshopper II ↓

Thun II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Grasshopper II or draw

80%

Grasshopper II or Thun II

80%

Draw or Thun II

40%

Winning margin

Grasshopper II wins by 2+

38%

Thun II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Grasshopper II 1+ goals

90%

Grasshopper II 2+ goals

66%

Grasshopper II 3+ goals

39%

Thun II 1+ goals

71%

Thun II 2+ goals

36%

Thun II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Grasshopper II (draw refunded)

75%

Thun II (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshopper II at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

Thun II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshopper II attack 2.49 + Thun II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.27

Thun II attack 1.33 + Grasshopper II defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Grasshopper II scores more

60%

level

20%

Thun II scores more

20%

Grasshopper II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Grasshopper II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff