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Thun II vs Concordia Basel — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Thun II
Thun II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Concordia Basel
Concordia Basel
9/9/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Thun II38%
×Draw22%
Concordia Basel40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thun II
1.79
Concordia Basel
1.83

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Thun II
1.80
Concordia Basel
1.93

allows per match

Thun II
1.73
Concordia Basel
1.77

finishing

Thun II+0.00on par
Concordia Basel+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thun II ↓

Concordia Basel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Thun II or draw
60%
Thun II or Concordia Basel
78%
Draw or Concordia Basel
62%

Winning margin

Thun II wins by 2+
20%
Concordia Basel wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Thun II 1+ goals
83%
Thun II 2+ goals
53%
Thun II 3+ goals
26%
Concordia Basel 1+ goals
84%
Concordia Basel 2+ goals
54%
Concordia Basel 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Thun II (draw refunded)
49%
Concordia Basel (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thun II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

Concordia Basel away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thun II attack 1.80 + Concordia Basel defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.79

Concordia Basel attack 1.93 + Thun II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Thun II scores more
38%
level
22%
Concordia Basel scores more
40%

Concordia Basel at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Concordia Basel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thun II vs Concordia Basel

Concordia Basel beat Thun II 2-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stockhorn Arena in Thun.