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Concordia Basel vs Thun II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Concordia Basel
Concordia Basel
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Thun II
Thun II
4/6/20251. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Concordia Basel54%
×Draw22%
Thun II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Concordia Basel
1.95
Thun II
1.25

Concordia Basel creates 56% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Concordia Basel
1.85
Thun II
1.33

allows per match

Concordia Basel
1.18
Thun II
2.04

finishing

Concordia Basel+0.00on par
Thun II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Basel ↓

Thun II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Concordia Basel or draw
76%
Concordia Basel or Thun II
78%
Draw or Thun II
46%

Winning margin

Concordia Basel wins by 2+
31%
Thun II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Concordia Basel 1+ goals
86%
Concordia Basel 2+ goals
58%
Concordia Basel 3+ goals
31%
Thun II 1+ goals
71%
Thun II 2+ goals
36%
Thun II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Concordia Basel (draw refunded)
69%
Thun II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Basel at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

Thun II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Basel attack 1.85 + Thun II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.95

Thun II attack 1.33 + Concordia Basel defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Concordia Basel scores more
54%
level
22%
Thun II scores more
24%

Concordia Basel at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Concordia Basel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Concordia Basel 2–0 Thun II

Concordia Basel beat Thun II 2-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Leichtathletik-Stadion St. Jakob in Basel.