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Thun II vs Black Stars — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Thun II
Thun II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Black Stars
Black Stars
5/10/20251. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Stockhorn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Thun II41%
×Draw22%
Black Stars37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thun II
1.83
Black Stars
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 60 away

creates per match

Thun II
1.80
Black Stars
1.77

allows per match

Thun II
1.73
Black Stars
1.85

finishing

Thun II+0.00on par
Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thun II ↓

Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Thun II or draw
63%
Thun II or Black Stars
78%
Draw or Black Stars
59%

Winning margin

Thun II wins by 2+
21%
Black Stars wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Thun II 1+ goals
84%
Thun II 2+ goals
54%
Thun II 3+ goals
28%
Black Stars 1+ goals
83%
Black Stars 2+ goals
52%
Black Stars 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Thun II (draw refunded)
52%
Black Stars (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thun II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

Black Stars away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.85 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thun II attack 1.80 + Black Stars defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.83

Black Stars attack 1.77 + Thun II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Thun II scores more
41%
level
22%
Black Stars scores more
37%

Thun II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Thun II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thun II vs Black Stars

Black Stars beat Thun II 3-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stockhorn Arena in Thun.