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Black Stars vs Thun II — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Black Stars
Black Stars
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Thun II
Thun II
11/2/20241. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Sportplatz Buschweilerhof

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Black Stars54%
×Draw21%
Thun II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Stars
2.09
Thun II
1.38

Black Stars creates 51% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

Black Stars
2.15
Thun II
1.33

allows per match

Black Stars
1.43
Thun II
2.04

finishing

Black Stars+0.00on par
Thun II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Stars ↓

Thun II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Black Stars or draw
75%
Black Stars or Thun II
79%
Draw or Thun II
46%

Winning margin

Black Stars wins by 2+
32%
Thun II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Black Stars 1+ goals
88%
Black Stars 2+ goals
62%
Black Stars 3+ goals
34%
Thun II 1+ goals
75%
Thun II 2+ goals
40%
Thun II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Black Stars (draw refunded)
68%
Thun II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Stars at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.43 · 60 matches

Thun II away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.04 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Stars attack 2.15 + Thun II defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.09

Thun II attack 1.33 + Black Stars defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Black Stars scores more
54%
level
21%
Thun II scores more
25%

Black Stars at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Black Stars vs Thun II

Thun II beat Black Stars 4-3 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Buschweilerhof in Basel.