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Thróttur Vogar vs Selfoss — 2. Deild 2026

Thróttur Vogar
Thróttur Vogar
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Selfoss
Selfoss
E. Baldvinsson 90+2'
A. Marteinsson 83'
J. Arnarsson 57'
O. Eyjolfsson 51'
A. Birgisson 80'
8/9/20242. Deild2. Deild · Round 16Vogabæjarvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Thróttur Vogar43%
×Draw22%
Selfoss35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thróttur Vogar
1.89
Selfoss
1.69

Thróttur Vogar creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Thróttur Vogar
1.92
Selfoss
2.15

allows per match

Thróttur Vogar
1.23
Selfoss
1.85

finishing

Thróttur Vogar+0.00on par
Selfoss+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thróttur Vogar ↓

Selfoss →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Thróttur Vogar or draw
65%
Thróttur Vogar or Selfoss
78%
Draw or Selfoss
57%

Winning margin

Thróttur Vogar wins by 2+
23%
Selfoss wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Thróttur Vogar 1+ goals
85%
Thróttur Vogar 2+ goals
56%
Thróttur Vogar 3+ goals
29%
Selfoss 1+ goals
82%
Selfoss 2+ goals
50%
Selfoss 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Thróttur Vogar (draw refunded)
55%
Selfoss (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thróttur Vogar at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.23 · 26 matches

Selfoss away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thróttur Vogar attack 1.92 + Selfoss defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.89

Selfoss attack 2.15 + Thróttur Vogar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Thróttur Vogar scores more
43%
level
22%
Selfoss scores more
35%

Thróttur Vogar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Thróttur Vogar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'
O. Eyjolfsson
57'
J. Arnarsson
80'
A. Birgisson
83'
A. Marteinsson
90+2'
E. Baldvinsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thróttur Vogar vs Selfoss

Thróttur Vogar beat Selfoss 4-1 in 2. Deild on August 9, 2024.

Goals: O. Eyjolfsson (51'), J. Arnarsson (57'), A. Birgisson (80'), A. Marteinsson (83'), E. Baldvinsson (90+2').

The match was played at Vogabæjarvöllur in Vogar.