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Selfoss vs Thróttur Vogar — 2. Deild 2026

Selfoss
Selfoss
FT
6 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Thróttur Vogar
Thróttur Vogar
J. Sanchez 82'
A. Vokes 71'
B. Baxter 67', 53'
A. Birgisson 62', 52'
G. Sigthorsson 1'
5/31/20242. Deild2. Deild · Round 5JÁVERK-völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Selfoss53%
×Draw21%
Thróttur Vogar26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Selfoss
2.19
Thróttur Vogar
1.50

Selfoss creates 46% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 25 away

creates per match

Selfoss
2.50
Thróttur Vogar
1.72

allows per match

Selfoss
1.29
Thróttur Vogar
1.88

finishing

Selfoss+0.00on par
Thróttur Vogar+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Selfoss ↓

Thróttur Vogar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Selfoss or draw
74%
Selfoss or Thróttur Vogar
79%
Draw or Thróttur Vogar
47%

Winning margin

Selfoss wins by 2+
32%
Thróttur Vogar wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Selfoss 1+ goals
89%
Selfoss 2+ goals
64%
Selfoss 3+ goals
37%
Thróttur Vogar 1+ goals
78%
Thróttur Vogar 2+ goals
44%
Thróttur Vogar 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Selfoss (draw refunded)
67%
Thróttur Vogar (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Selfoss at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Thróttur Vogar away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.88 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Selfoss attack 2.50 + Thróttur Vogar defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.19

Thróttur Vogar attack 1.72 + Selfoss defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Selfoss scores more
53%
level
21%
Thróttur Vogar scores more
26%

Selfoss at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Selfoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
G. Sigthorsson
52'
A. Birgisson
53'
B. Baxter
62'
A. Birgisson
67'
B. Baxter
71'
A. Vokes
82'
J. Sanchez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Selfoss vs Thróttur Vogar

Selfoss beat Thróttur Vogar 6-1 in 2. Deild on May 31, 2024.

Goals: G. Sigthorsson (1'), A. Birgisson (52', 62'), B. Baxter (53', 67'), A. Vokes (71'), J. Sanchez (82').

The match was played at JÁVERK-völlurinn in Selfoss, Árborg.