Thróttur Vogar 5–1 Huginn: Result & Stats

Thróttur Vogar

FT

5 – 1

Huginn

5/5/2018

2. Deild · Round 1Vogabæjarvöllur (Vogar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Thróttur Vogar76%

×Draw15%

Huginn9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thróttur VogarExpected goals in this matchHuginn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

0.83

Thróttur Vogar

2.69

Huginn

0.83

Thróttur Vogar creates 224% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 11 away

1.92

creates per match

0.64

1.02

allows per match

3.45

creates per match

Thróttur Vogar

1.92

Huginn

0.64

allows per match

Thróttur Vogar

1.02

Huginn

3.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thróttur Vogar+0.00on par

Huginn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thróttur Vogar ↓

Huginn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Thróttur Vogar or draw

91%

Thróttur Vogar or Huginn

85%

Draw or Huginn

24%

Winning margin

Thróttur Vogar wins by 2+

55%

Huginn wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Thróttur Vogar 1+ goals

93%

Thróttur Vogar 2+ goals

74%

Thróttur Vogar 3+ goals

49%

Huginn 1+ goals

56%

Huginn 2+ goals

20%

Huginn 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Thróttur Vogar (draw refunded)

89%

Huginn (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thróttur Vogar at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.02 · 83 matches

Huginn away — creates 0.64, concedes 3.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thróttur Vogar attack 1.92 + Huginn defence 3.45 → ÷2 → 2.69

Huginn attack 0.64 + Thróttur Vogar defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Thróttur Vogar scores more

76%

level

15%

Huginn scores more

9%

Thróttur Vogar at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Thróttur Vogar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff