Huginn 1–1 Thróttur Vogar: Result & Stats

Huginn

FT

1 – 1

Thróttur Vogar

7/21/2018

2. Deild · Round 12Seyðisfjarðarvöllur (Seyðisfjörður)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Huginn25%

×Draw24%

Thróttur Vogar51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuginnExpected goals in this matchThróttur Vogar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.69

Huginn

1.11

Thróttur Vogar

1.69

Thróttur Vogar creates 52% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 81 away

0.55

creates per match

1.83

1.55

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Huginn

0.55

Thróttur Vogar

1.83

allows per match

Huginn

1.55

Thróttur Vogar

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huginn+0.00on par

Thróttur Vogar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huginn ↓

Thróttur Vogar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Huginn or draw

49%

Huginn or Thróttur Vogar

76%

Draw or Thróttur Vogar

75%

Winning margin

Huginn wins by 2+

10%

Thróttur Vogar wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Huginn 1+ goals

67%

Huginn 2+ goals

30%

Huginn 3+ goals

10%

Thróttur Vogar 1+ goals

82%

Thróttur Vogar 2+ goals

50%

Thróttur Vogar 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Huginn (draw refunded)

33%

Thróttur Vogar (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huginn at home — creates 0.55, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Thróttur Vogar away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huginn attack 0.55 + Thróttur Vogar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.11

Thróttur Vogar attack 1.83 + Huginn defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Huginn scores more

25%

level

24%

Thróttur Vogar scores more

51%

Thróttur Vogar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Thróttur Vogar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff