Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Thróttur Vogar vs Höttur — 2. Deild 2018

Thróttur Vogar
Thróttur Vogar
FT
5 – 2
Höttur
Höttur
6/9/20182. Deild2. Deild · Round 6Vogabæjarvöllur (Vogar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Thróttur Vogar65%
×Draw19%
Höttur16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thróttur Vogar
2.37
Höttur
1.10

Thróttur Vogar creates 115% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 11 away

creates per match

Thróttur Vogar
1.92
Höttur
1.18

allows per match

Thróttur Vogar
1.02
Höttur
2.82

finishing

Thróttur Vogar+0.00on par
Höttur+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thróttur Vogar ↓

Höttur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Thróttur Vogar or draw
84%
Thróttur Vogar or Höttur
81%
Draw or Höttur
35%

Winning margin

Thróttur Vogar wins by 2+
43%
Höttur wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Thróttur Vogar 1+ goals
91%
Thróttur Vogar 2+ goals
68%
Thróttur Vogar 3+ goals
42%
Höttur 1+ goals
67%
Höttur 2+ goals
30%
Höttur 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Thróttur Vogar (draw refunded)
80%
Höttur (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thróttur Vogar at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.02 · 83 matches

Höttur away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thróttur Vogar attack 1.92 + Höttur defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.37

Höttur attack 1.18 + Thróttur Vogar defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Thróttur Vogar scores more
65%
level
19%
Höttur scores more
16%

Thróttur Vogar at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Thróttur Vogar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thróttur Vogar vs Höttur

Thróttur Vogar beat Höttur 5-2 in 2. Deild on June 9, 2018.

The match was played at Vogabæjarvöllur (Vogar).