Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Höttur vs Thróttur Vogar — 2. Deild 2018

Höttur
Höttur
FT
1 – 3
Thróttur Vogar
Thróttur Vogar
8/25/20182. Deild2. Deild · Round 18Vilhjálmsvöllur (Egilsstaðir, Fljótsdalshérað)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Höttur37%
×Draw23%
Thróttur Vogar40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Höttur
1.65
Thróttur Vogar
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 81 away

creates per match

Höttur
1.64
Thróttur Vogar
1.83

allows per match

Höttur
1.64
Thróttur Vogar
1.67

finishing

Höttur+0.00on par
Thróttur Vogar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Höttur ↓

Thróttur Vogar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Höttur or draw
60%
Höttur or Thróttur Vogar
77%
Draw or Thróttur Vogar
63%

Winning margin

Höttur wins by 2+
18%
Thróttur Vogar wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Höttur 1+ goals
81%
Höttur 2+ goals
49%
Höttur 3+ goals
23%
Thróttur Vogar 1+ goals
82%
Thróttur Vogar 2+ goals
52%
Thróttur Vogar 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Höttur (draw refunded)
48%
Thróttur Vogar (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Höttur at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Thróttur Vogar away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.67 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Höttur attack 1.64 + Thróttur Vogar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Thróttur Vogar attack 1.83 + Höttur defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Höttur scores more
37%
level
23%
Thróttur Vogar scores more
40%

Thróttur Vogar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Thróttur Vogar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Höttur 1–3 Thróttur Vogar

Thróttur Vogar beat Höttur 3-1 in 2. Deild on August 25, 2018.

The match was played at Vilhjálmsvöllur (Egilsstaðir, Fljótsdalshérað).