Throttur Reykjavik 3–2 Keflavik: Result & Stats

Throttur Reykjavik

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Keflavik

S. Björnsson 90+4'

E. Einarsson 65'

L. Jeffs 29'

M. Mladen 79'

A. Jóhannesson 53'

8/24/2024

1. Deild · Round 19AVIS völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Throttur Reykjavik41%

×Draw22%

Keflavik36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Throttur ReykjavikExpected goals in this matchKeflavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.67

Throttur Reykjavik

1.79

Keflavik

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

2.00

creates per match

1.86

1.48

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Throttur Reykjavik

2.00

Keflavik

1.86

allows per match

Throttur Reykjavik

1.48

Keflavik

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Keflavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Throttur Reykjavik ↓

Keflavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Throttur Reykjavik or draw

64%

Throttur Reykjavik or Keflavik

78%

Draw or Keflavik

59%

Winning margin

Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+

22%

Keflavik wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals

83%

Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals

53%

Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals

26%

Keflavik 1+ goals

81%

Keflavik 2+ goals

50%

Keflavik 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

53%

Keflavik (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Throttur Reykjavik at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

Keflavik away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Throttur Reykjavik attack 2.00 + Keflavik defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.79

Keflavik attack 1.86 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Throttur Reykjavik scores more

41%

level

22%

Keflavik scores more

36%

Throttur Reykjavik at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Throttur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

G. Gudmundsson

29'

L. Jeffs

31'

R. Gissurarson← Ásgeir Orri Magnússon

36'

S. Magnusson

44'

J. Pettersen

45+2'

H. Thorhallsson

53'

A. Jóhannesson

61'

S. Björnsson← B. Björnsson

61'

V. Steinarsson← V. Hafþórsson

65'

K. Yaroshenko← L. Jeffs

65'

V. Hákonarson← A. Guðmundsson

65'

E. Einarsson

79'

M. Mladen

82'

Gabríel Aron Sævarsson← R. Eysteinsson

82'

M. Diaw← K. Sigfússon

87'

B. Haraldsson← H. Þórhallsson

88'

B. Haraldsson

90+5'

M. Mladen

90+4'

S. Björnsson

Throttur

Keflavik

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Jeffs

▼

Þórhallss

Manager: S. Ólafsson

61'▲S. Björnsson←▼B. Björnsson

61'▲V. Steinarsson←▼V. Hafþórsson

65'▲K. Yaroshenko←▼L. Jeffs

87'▲B. Haraldsson←▼H. Þórhallsson

Throttur Reykjavik substitutes

BjörnssonSteinarssonYaroshenkoHaraldssonGuðbergssonGuðnasonStefánsson

Manager: H. Guðmundsson

31'▲R. Gissurarson←▼Ásgeir Orri Magnússon

65'▲V. Hákonarson←▼A. Guðmundsson

82'▲Gabríel Aron Sævarsson←▼R. Eysteinsson

82'▲M. Diaw←▼K. Sigfússon

Keflavik substitutes

GissurarsonHákonarsonSævarssonDiawHákonarsonBrynjarssonIngimarsson