Keflavik 1–1 Throttur Reykjavik: Result & Stats

Keflavik

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Throttur Reykjavik

A. Guðmundsson 55'

K. Yaroshenko 85'

6/20/2024

1. Deild · Round 8HS Orku völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Keflavik52%

×Draw20%

Throttur Reykjavik28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KeflavikExpected goals in this matchThrottur Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.59

Keflavik

2.23

Throttur Reykjavik

1.59

Keflavik creates 40% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 24 away

2.75

creates per match

1.83

1.35

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Keflavik

2.75

Throttur Reykjavik

1.83

allows per match

Keflavik

1.35

Throttur Reykjavik

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Keflavik+0.00on par

Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Keflavik ↓

Throttur Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Keflavik or draw

72%

Keflavik or Throttur Reykjavik

80%

Draw or Throttur Reykjavik

48%

Winning margin

Keflavik wins by 2+

31%

Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Keflavik 1+ goals

89%

Keflavik 2+ goals

65%

Keflavik 3+ goals

38%

Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals

80%

Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals

47%

Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Keflavik (draw refunded)

65%

Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Keflavik at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

Throttur Reykjavik away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Keflavik attack 2.75 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.23

Throttur Reykjavik attack 1.83 + Keflavik defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Keflavik scores more

52%

level

20%

Throttur Reykjavik scores more

28%

Keflavik at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Keflavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Í. Ívarsson← V. Sigurðsson

55'

A. Guðmundsson

60'

K. Yaroshenko← K. Kristjánsson

60'

V. Hafþórsson← S. Björnsson

65'

E. Osmani

68'

F. Elvarsson← E. Osmani

82'

G. Hilmarsson← Crístofer

85'

N. Heras

85'

K. Yaroshenko

88'

Gabríel Aron Sævarsson← V. Hákonarson

90+4'

N. Þórhallsson← E. Einarsson

Keflavik

Throttur

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: H. Guðmundsson

68'▲F. Elvarsson←▼E. Osmani

88'▲Gabríel Aron Sævarsson←▼V. Hákonarson

Keflavik substitutes

ElvarssonSævarssonHákonarsonSævarssonKovtunGissurarsonKamel

Manager: S. Ólafsson

46'▲Í. Ívarsson←▼V. Sigurðsson

60'▲K. Yaroshenko←▼K. Kristjánsson

60'▲V. Hafþórsson←▼S. Björnsson

82'▲G. Hilmarsson←▼Crístofer

90+4'▲N. Þórhallsson←▼E. Einarsson

Throttur Reykjavik substitutes

ÍvarssonYaroshenkoHafþórssonHilmarssonÞórhallssonSteinarssonGuðnason