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Throttur Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar — League #168 2026

Throttur Reykjavik
Throttur Reykjavik
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
Unknown 90+3', 53'
Unknown 26'
2/24/2024League #168League #168 · Group Stage - 3AVIS völlurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Throttur Reykjavik52%
×Draw23%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Throttur Reykjavik
1.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.16

Throttur Reykjavik creates 55% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Throttur Reykjavik
2.11
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.75

allows per match

Throttur Reykjavik
1.56
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.50

finishing

Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par
IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Throttur Reykjavik ↓

IBV Vestmannaeyjar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Throttur Reykjavik or draw
75%
Throttur Reykjavik or IBV Vestmannaeyjar
77%
Draw or IBV Vestmannaeyjar
48%

Winning margin

Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+
29%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals
83%
Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals
54%
Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals
27%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals
69%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals
32%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)
68%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Throttur Reykjavik at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Throttur Reykjavik attack 2.11 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.80

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 0.75 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Throttur Reykjavik scores more
52%
level
23%
IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more
25%

Throttur Reykjavik at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Throttur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
44'
53'
62'
90+1'
90+2'
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Throttur Reykjavik vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar

Throttur Reykjavik beat IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2-1 in League #168 on February 24, 2024.

Goals: ? (26', 53', 90+3').

The match was played at AVIS völlurinn in Reykjavík.