IBV Vestmannaeyjar 4–2 Throttur Reykjavik

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Throttur Reykjavik

O. Heiðarsson 48', 37', 26'

S. Hjaltested 2'

J. Pettersen 88'

K. Kristjánsson 45+1'

5/10/2024

1. Deild · Round 2Hásteinsvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

IBV Vestmannaeyjar58%

×Draw19%

Throttur Reykjavik24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IBV VestmannaeyjarExpected goals in this matchThrottur Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.58

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

2.52

Throttur Reykjavik

1.58

IBV Vestmannaeyjar creates 59% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 24 away

3.33

creates per match

1.83

1.33

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

3.33

Throttur Reykjavik

1.83

allows per match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar

1.33

Throttur Reykjavik

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IBV Vestmannaeyjar+0.00on par

Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IBV Vestmannaeyjar ↓

Throttur Reykjavik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

IBV Vestmannaeyjar or draw

76%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar or Throttur Reykjavik

81%

Draw or Throttur Reykjavik

42%

Winning margin

IBV Vestmannaeyjar wins by 2+

37%

Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 1+ goals

92%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 2+ goals

71%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar 3+ goals

45%

Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals

79%

Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals

47%

Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

IBV Vestmannaeyjar (draw refunded)

71%

Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Throttur Reykjavik away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IBV Vestmannaeyjar attack 3.33 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.52

Throttur Reykjavik attack 1.83 + IBV Vestmannaeyjar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

IBV Vestmannaeyjar scores more

58%

level

19%

Throttur Reykjavik scores more

24%

IBV Vestmannaeyjar at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "IBV Vestmannaeyjar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

26'

33'

37'

44'

T. Magnusson

45+1'

K. Kristjánsson

46'

Í. Ívarsson← V. Hafþórsson

48'

O. Heiðarsson

56'

E. Einarsson

62'

D. Traustason← S. Björnsson

62'

Izaro Abella← Crístofer

65'

E. Runarsson

69'

A. Gunnarsson← A. Hilmarsson

69'

N. Nökkvason← Vicente Valor

75'

F. Fridriksson

76'

R. Christiansen← O. Heiðarsson

76'

S. Benónýsson← J. Ingason

76'

V. Steinarsson← B. Björnsson

82'

K. Yaroshenko← E. Einarsson

87'

V. Þorvarðarson← T. Magnússon

88'

J. Pettersen

IBV

Throttur

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: H. Hreiðarsson

69'▲A. Gunnarsson←▼A. Hilmarsson

69'▲N. Nökkvason←▼Vicente Valor

76'▲R. Christiansen←▼O. Heiðarsson

76'▲S. Benónýsson←▼J. Ingason

87'▲V. Þorvarðarson←▼T. Magnússon

IBV Vestmannaeyjar substitutes

GunnarssonNökkvasonChristiansenBenónýssonÞorvarðarsonHilmarssonElíasson

Manager: S. Ólafsson

46'▲Í. Ívarsson←▼V. Hafþórsson

62'▲D. Traustason←▼S. Björnsson

62'▲Izaro Abella←▼Crístofer

76'▲V. Steinarsson←▼B. Björnsson

82'▲K. Yaroshenko←▼E. Einarsson

Throttur Reykjavik substitutes

ÍvarssonTraustasonAbellaSteinarssonYaroshenkoHarðarsonGuðnason