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Thornton Redbacks vs South Cardiff — NNSW League 1 2026

Thornton Redbacks
Thornton Redbacks
FT
0 – 6
South Cardiff
South Cardiff
8/17/2024NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 27Thornton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Thornton Redbacks31%
×Draw23%
South Cardiff46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thornton Redbacks
1.50
South Cardiff
1.86

South Cardiff creates 24% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 28 away

creates per match

Thornton Redbacks
1.43
South Cardiff
1.25

allows per match

Thornton Redbacks
2.48
South Cardiff
1.57

finishing

Thornton Redbacks+0.00on par
South Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thornton Redbacks ↓

South Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Thornton Redbacks or draw
54%
Thornton Redbacks or South Cardiff
77%
Draw or South Cardiff
69%

Winning margin

Thornton Redbacks wins by 2+
14%
South Cardiff wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Thornton Redbacks 1+ goals
78%
Thornton Redbacks 2+ goals
44%
Thornton Redbacks 3+ goals
19%
South Cardiff 1+ goals
84%
South Cardiff 2+ goals
55%
South Cardiff 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Thornton Redbacks (draw refunded)
40%
South Cardiff (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thornton Redbacks at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.48 · 21 matches

South Cardiff away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thornton Redbacks attack 1.43 + South Cardiff defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

South Cardiff attack 1.25 + Thornton Redbacks defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Thornton Redbacks scores more
31%
level
23%
South Cardiff scores more
46%

South Cardiff at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "South Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Thornton Redbacks vs South Cardiff

South Cardiff beat Thornton Redbacks 6-0 in NNSW League 1 on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Thornton Park in Thornton.