South Cardiff 0–4 Thornton Redbacks: Result & Stats

South Cardiff

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Thornton Redbacks

6/8/2024

NNSW League 1 · Round 18Lake Macquarie Regional Football Facility Field 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

South Cardiff32%

×Draw21%

Thornton Redbacks46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

South CardiffExpected goals in this matchThornton Redbacks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

2.08

South Cardiff

1.72

Thornton Redbacks

2.08

Thornton Redbacks creates 21% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 21 away

1.29

creates per match

1.62

2.54

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

South Cardiff

1.29

Thornton Redbacks

1.62

allows per match

South Cardiff

2.54

Thornton Redbacks

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

South Cardiff+0.00on par

Thornton Redbacks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

South Cardiff ↓

Thornton Redbacks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

South Cardiff or draw

54%

South Cardiff or Thornton Redbacks

79%

Draw or Thornton Redbacks

68%

Winning margin

South Cardiff wins by 2+

16%

Thornton Redbacks wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

South Cardiff 1+ goals

82%

South Cardiff 2+ goals

51%

South Cardiff 3+ goals

25%

Thornton Redbacks 1+ goals

87%

Thornton Redbacks 2+ goals

61%

Thornton Redbacks 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

South Cardiff (draw refunded)

41%

Thornton Redbacks (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

South Cardiff at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.54 · 28 matches

Thornton Redbacks away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.14 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

South Cardiff attack 1.29 + Thornton Redbacks defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.72

Thornton Redbacks attack 1.62 + South Cardiff defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

South Cardiff scores more

32%

level

21%

Thornton Redbacks scores more

46%

Thornton Redbacks at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Thornton Redbacks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff