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Thornton Redbacks vs Singleton Strikers — NNSW League 1 2026

Thornton Redbacks
Thornton Redbacks
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Singleton Strikers
Singleton Strikers
7/13/2025NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 15Thornton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Thornton Redbacks30%
×Draw21%
Singleton Strikers49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thornton Redbacks
1.57
Singleton Strikers
2.06

Singleton Strikers creates 31% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 28 away

creates per match

Thornton Redbacks
1.43
Singleton Strikers
1.64

allows per match

Thornton Redbacks
2.48
Singleton Strikers
1.71

finishing

Thornton Redbacks+0.00on par
Singleton Strikers+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thornton Redbacks ↓

Singleton Strikers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Thornton Redbacks or draw
51%
Thornton Redbacks or Singleton Strikers
79%
Draw or Singleton Strikers
70%

Winning margin

Thornton Redbacks wins by 2+
14%
Singleton Strikers wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Thornton Redbacks 1+ goals
79%
Thornton Redbacks 2+ goals
46%
Thornton Redbacks 3+ goals
21%
Singleton Strikers 1+ goals
87%
Singleton Strikers 2+ goals
61%
Singleton Strikers 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Thornton Redbacks (draw refunded)
38%
Singleton Strikers (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thornton Redbacks at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.48 · 21 matches

Singleton Strikers away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.71 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thornton Redbacks attack 1.43 + Singleton Strikers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.57

Singleton Strikers attack 1.64 + Thornton Redbacks defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Thornton Redbacks scores more
30%
level
21%
Singleton Strikers scores more
49%

Singleton Strikers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Singleton Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NNSW League 1: Thornton Redbacks 1–1 Singleton Strikers

Thornton Redbacks and Singleton Strikers drew 1-1 in NNSW League 1 on July 13, 2025.

The match was played at Thornton Park in Thornton.