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Singleton Strikers vs Thornton Redbacks — NNSW League 1 2026

Singleton Strikers
Singleton Strikers
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Thornton Redbacks
Thornton Redbacks
7/6/2024NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 22Howe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Singleton Strikers41%
×Draw23%
Thornton Redbacks37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Singleton Strikers
1.75
Thornton Redbacks
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 21 away

creates per match

Singleton Strikers
1.36
Thornton Redbacks
1.62

allows per match

Singleton Strikers
1.68
Thornton Redbacks
2.14

finishing

Singleton Strikers+0.00on par
Thornton Redbacks+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Singleton Strikers ↓

Thornton Redbacks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Singleton Strikers or draw
63%
Singleton Strikers or Thornton Redbacks
77%
Draw or Thornton Redbacks
59%

Winning margin

Singleton Strikers wins by 2+
21%
Thornton Redbacks wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Singleton Strikers 1+ goals
83%
Singleton Strikers 2+ goals
52%
Singleton Strikers 3+ goals
25%
Thornton Redbacks 1+ goals
81%
Thornton Redbacks 2+ goals
49%
Thornton Redbacks 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Singleton Strikers (draw refunded)
53%
Thornton Redbacks (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Singleton Strikers at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

Thornton Redbacks away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.14 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Singleton Strikers attack 1.36 + Thornton Redbacks defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.75

Thornton Redbacks attack 1.62 + Singleton Strikers defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Singleton Strikers scores more
41%
level
23%
Thornton Redbacks scores more
37%

Singleton Strikers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Singleton Strikers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NNSW League 1: Singleton Strikers 3–0 Thornton Redbacks

Singleton Strikers beat Thornton Redbacks 3-0 in NNSW League 1 on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at Howe Park in Singleton.