Thornton Redbacks 3–1 Lake Macquarie

Thornton Redbacks

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lake Macquarie

4/11/2025

NNSW League 1 · Round 5Thornton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Thornton Redbacks29%

×Draw20%

Lake Macquarie51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thornton RedbacksExpected goals in this matchLake Macquarie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

2.37

Thornton Redbacks

1.75

Lake Macquarie

2.37

Lake Macquarie creates 35% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

1.43

creates per match

2.25

2.48

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Thornton Redbacks

1.43

Lake Macquarie

2.25

allows per match

Thornton Redbacks

2.48

Lake Macquarie

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Thornton Redbacks+0.00on par

Lake Macquarie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thornton Redbacks ↓

Lake Macquarie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Thornton Redbacks or draw

49%

Thornton Redbacks or Lake Macquarie

80%

Draw or Lake Macquarie

71%

Winning margin

Thornton Redbacks wins by 2+

14%

Lake Macquarie wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Thornton Redbacks 1+ goals

83%

Thornton Redbacks 2+ goals

52%

Thornton Redbacks 3+ goals

25%

Lake Macquarie 1+ goals

91%

Lake Macquarie 2+ goals

68%

Lake Macquarie 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Thornton Redbacks (draw refunded)

36%

Lake Macquarie (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thornton Redbacks at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.48 · 21 matches

Lake Macquarie away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thornton Redbacks attack 1.43 + Lake Macquarie defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.75

Lake Macquarie attack 2.25 + Thornton Redbacks defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Thornton Redbacks scores more

29%

level

20%

Lake Macquarie scores more

51%

Lake Macquarie at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lake Macquarie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff